🔗 Share this article

Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.