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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."